{"id":2440,"date":"2010-05-23T12:47:06","date_gmt":"2010-05-23T19:47:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/josemarquez.com\/xsml\/?p=2440"},"modified":"2010-05-23T12:47:06","modified_gmt":"2010-05-23T19:47:06","slug":"models-that-dont-factor-in-psychology-arent-very-serious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/2010\/05\/23\/models-that-dont-factor-in-psychology-arent-very-serious\/","title":{"rendered":"Models that don&#8217;t factor in psychology aren&#8217;t very serious."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>James Surowiecki warns of <a HREF=http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/talk\/financial\/2010\/05\/24\/100524ta_talk_surowiecki>political risk<\/a> in global markets and or the spectre of sovereign capital: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Political risk is hard to manage because so much comes down to the personal choices of policymakers, whether prime ministers or heads of central banks. And these choices aren&#8217;t always going to be economically rational&#8211;witness [Angela] Merkel&#8217;s recent tergiversations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Yet political choices are as rational as economic ones. Merkel&#8217;s posturing on the Greek bailout was calculated. She sought to spend the least &#8220;political capital&#8221; and gain the greatest return (electoral wins.)<\/p>\n<p>That market models have previously neglected poltical and\/or <a href=http:\/\/josemarquez.com\/xsml\/archives\/2307>social dynamics<\/a> is their weakness. The world has always been complex: we&#8217;re just growing more attuned to it and betting larger sums on our ability to exploit this knowledge.<\/p>\n<p>Related: Marc Ambinder on how <a href=http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2010\/05\/the-fires-this-time-joe-flood-on-managing-new-york-city\/56682\/>models used in NYC urban planning<\/a> are failing because they exclude human experience; model makers failed to interview principal actors.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>James Surowiecki warns of political risk in global markets and or the spectre of sovereign capital: Political risk is hard to manage because so much comes down to the personal choices of policymakers, whether prime ministers or heads of central banks. And these choices aren&#8217;t always going to be economically rational&#8211;witness [Angela] Merkel&#8217;s recent tergiversations&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,13],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2440"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.josemarquez.com\/etc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}