How to end a game fairly that was played with unfair rules.

From a fascinating discussion of the moral dimension of our economic collapse, Steve Randy Waldman:

One group of people who did not violate traditional norms during the course of the credit bubble is the ordinary homebuyer who bought at the top of the market without forming an opinion on valuation, trusting market prices and professional advisors. Most homebuyers are not market timers: they purchase when the circumstances of their own lives make homeownership attractive, and take regional prices as given. Certainly the momentum of home prices affected Joe Sixpack’s (or G.I. Joe’s) buy vs. rent decision. Nevertheless, this group had the least culpability for the malfunctions of the credit market yet they are bearing a disproportionate share of the costs. McArdle thinks it would be desirable, from a social perspective, to reinforce norms under which borrowers have a moral obligation to pay. I would rather lenders ensure that loans where it would not be mutually advantageous for the borrower to pay are rare. To uphold McArdle’s norms on the backs of people who were drawn into a speculative bubble not of their making, whose “banking relationship” consists of a note that has been sold and resold multiple times, and whose risks are legally shared with other parties that have not hewn to any standard of good behavior, is simply unjust. Even if they could bear the cost. Even if they buy new furniture with the savings.

via The Browser.

China flexes its muscles in Copenhagen.

Mark Lynas:

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful “deal” so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

What you see is what you get.

Avatar is as close to perfect as a movie gets – and certainly one that is oriented, by market forces, for a PG-13 release. Others will do a much better job assessing the movie’s many gifts to our culture (e.g., in terms of technique, it leaves the uncanny valley far, far behind) so I want to just note two things: its possible political impact and, quickly, its most jarring failure.

A few months ago I wondered if movie makers, having rendered so many visions of a mechanical / industrial future, would begin to: “realize a post-industrial reality, using CG to render green where there is currently steel.”

Avatar does. Incredibly.

Kids who grow up watching WALL-E and now Avatar are probably going to have an easier time imagining future scenarios that are not based on industrial-age values – i.e., the externalities that often don’t get considered when deciding whether or not to replace a complex ecosystem with a much simpler, and perhaps, doomed one.

brazil-before-after

(I’m not sure what role Star Wars played in global political culture during the 80s and 90s – the SDI missile defense plan, aside – given that its message of rebels versus empire had already played out in much of the world by the mid 1970s. Roger Ebert has called Avatar a welcome successor to that trilogy and I agree – a hundred times over.)

Earlier this year, I passed along this anecdote about the Iraqi insurgent who loved Titanic: “He recounted watching it seven times and crying every time at the ending, as Kate Winslet lets the dead Leonardo DiCaprio slip into the freezing North Atlantic.” Given Avatar’s complex politics – its celebration of both localism and “miscegenation” – I can’t begin to imagine how this movie will play out across the world.
 
Which is all the more reason to make note of one glaring shortcoming: the scenes of ritual prayer. Considering the sophisticated craftsmanship that went into imaging and populating the hybrid world of Avatar (familiar-alien, present-future, live-cg) the scenes in which the fictional Navi people are shown in prayer are corny and cliched. I don’t have the heart to research who is to blame for that oversight but they were clearly mismatched for the project – and if it was the director’s doing, he should have delegated. Taken out of context, they’re almost offensive.

postscript
Avatar’s environmental agenda is only one part of a broader satire. The plot pivots on a loaded bribe: a military official, acting on behalf of a corporation and its shareholders, offers a wounded veteran access to otherwise unaffordable health care. In exchange, the vet is asked to commit an act of betrayal.

“Doggone it, people like me.”

It’s no Prime Minister’s Questions but, edited, the following performance is pretty entertaining. Senator Al Franken arguing on behalf of the reality-based community:

I know Franken as a comedian (I’m old enough to remember “Doggone it, people like me.”) so I’m primed to experience what he says as entertainment. That prejudice or, in marketing terms, consideration, is a significant advantage in our highly competitive media marketplace.

Priming has bolstered the careers of Republicans like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan. It’s also key to understanding the role that talk radio and now Glenn Beck plays for the right wing. It’s nice to see that psychological “shortcut” working for a Democrat.

The problem with unicorns.

Hybrids are difficult. Perhaps, even impossible.

Take, for instance, President Barack Obama. He is a white man and a black man. But to his detractors on the far right, he is all Black – indeed, the grossest caricature of an African-American, an exotic African from the distant past.

Because President Obama is quite literally neither black nor white, a mere photograph of his face is already a challenge to long-standing racial hierarchies. More disturbing still for the many Americans coddled by the previous administration’s mania for black and white absolutes, President Obama’s politics are also, well, complicated.

As the comedian Jon Stewart observed in describing the president’s Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech: “Obama forcing us to live in area between absolutes. Brain hurts! Complicated!”

The fear of the in-between, of that which is neither one nor the other, is both ancient and universal because it is essential to the way our brains make sense of the world.

On Friday, the Pew Hispanic Center released a report that confirms just how entrenched the fear of a hybrid identity is, even among the hybrid:

“The melting pot is dead. Long live the salad bowl,” when it comes to how young Latinos and others perceive their place in America.

When asked how they first described themselves, 52 percent said their preference was for their family’s country of origin — Dominican, Mexican, Cuban, etc. — over American, which 24 percent favored. Even fewer, 20 percent, responded Hispanic or Latino.

More than three in four say they are “some other race” or identify Hispanic or Latino, even though, according to the Census Bureau, that is an ethnic designation. Sixteen percent of young Latinos identify themselves as white, compared with 30 percent of adult Latinos.

We experience cognitive dissonance – say, the paradox of being both one thing and another – as painful. We seek refuge from ambiguity in categories that are perceived to be whole (e.g., “Dominican, Mexican, Cuban”), and even in categories that are as ill-defined as “some other race.”

That last possibility strikes me as the most pregnant: it’s a placeholder. It implies: “we don’t know yet, we’ll figure it out later.”

The Riddle of the Sphinx reminds us that our identity is fluid: what creature walks on four legs, then two legs and finally three legs? As we mature, who we are and, more importantly, how we perceive ourselves changes.

If there is any one trait that applies to hybrids at any point in their process of emerging, it’s just that: they are defined by their becoming. They are always what they will be.

postscript
It’s a wonderful coincidence that the only character in Blade Runner who knows the protagonist’s true identity is played by Edward James Olmos. And that his tell is an origami unicorn.

Paul Volcker on recovery, government aid, energy taxes and financial engineers versus mechanical engineers..

From an excellent interview:

SPIEGEL: The US has not yet instituted any kind of reform policy. What we see is the government and the Federal Reserve pouring money into the economy. If one looks beyond that money, one sees that the economy is in fact still shrinking.

Volcker: What should I say? That’s right. We have not yet achieved self-reinforcing recovery. We are heavily dependent upon government support so far. We are on a government support system, both in the financial markets and in the economy.

SPIEGEL: To get the recovery to the point where it is right now has cost a lot of money. National debt will probably reach $12 trillion in 2019. Just serving the debt costs $17 billion a year — at least according to this year’s forecast. That’s difficult to sustain.

Volcker: You’ve got to deal with the deficit and you’ve got to deal with it in a timely way. Right now, with the unemployment rate still very high, excess capacity is still evident, and the economy is dependent on government money as we said. We are not going to successfully attack the deficit right now but we have got to prepare for attacking it.

SPIEGEL: Should Americans prepare themselves for a tax increase?

Volcker: Not at the moment, but I think we would have to think about it. The present tax system historically has transferred about 18 to 19 percent of the GNP to the government. And we are going to come out of all this with an expenditure relationship to GNP very substantially above that. We either have to cut expenditures and that means reducing entitlements and certainly defense expenditures by an amount that may not be possible. If you can do it, fine. If we can’t do it, then we have to think about taxes.

SPIEGEL: What kind of taxes do you have in mind?

Volcker: Maybe we should talk about energy taxes, which could be a big revenue producer.

Also, this:

Volcker: I must say, I admire Germany in this situation even with its high costs. In some ways, I think the labor cost is higher in Germany than it is in the United States but you can somehow maintain that export edge. You are dedicated to exporting, we are dedicated to financial engineering and it hasn’t worked out too well. I wish we had fewer financial engineers and more mechanical engineers. Tell me the secret of how the Germans keep this going.

via Yves Smith, once more.

Also: Paul Volcker on Wikipedia.

Oh, right, there’s checks and balances.

Matthew Yglesias responds to (or dispenses with) Matt Taibbi’s latest essay on President Obama:

Matt Taibbi has the latest in the endless series of articles and blog posts by everyone under the sun claiming everything in the world would be great if only Barack Obama were more left-wing. Taibbi is a much better writer than most people, so his contribution to this literature has a great deal more panache. That said, not only does his piece have the various factual problems noted by Tim Fernholz but it suffers from the same basic conceptual flaw as the vast majority of this literature—it ignores congress.

A society that would survive a 1,000 year journey on a spaceship.

Writer Charlie Stross asks his readers to design a society that could survive a thousand year journey across space. Many of the responses are intriguing, especially those that are pregnant with possibilities. For example:

Chop it up into 5 or 10 distinct physically societies and do everything you can to make sure they don’t have the means to access one another. Have a computer controlled system allowing extremely unwieldy travel between adjacent areas once every ten years, e.g. a tunnel you have to crawl through which is open for 30 minutes.

How long before one or more of those societies makes it their primary objective to circumvent these artificial borders? And does that focus make the passage of time bearable?

I mention this exchange here because it’s an exercise in political science fiction, the intellectual backbone of my life for the last 20 years.

For what is Stross’ question about a society that can withstand a thousand year journey through space but a novel rephrasing of the question that has defined us all for millennia?

spaceship_earth
A spaceship in solar orbit, photographed from its satellite.

How should we live?

Ask Moses, Aristotle, Plato, Jesus, Buddha, Mohammed, Confucius, St. Augustine, etc., etc., etc.

Open licenses to DIY.

Lindsey Adelman makes beautiful lighting. She also teaches visitors how to reproduce her own works in a detailed PDF document supplemented by links to online retailers of the necessary parts.

Warhol is praised (and prized) for making unique art in the age of mechanical reproduction, artists like Adelman are to be credited for adapting to the age of digital reproduction.

Update: friend CP points me to Enzo Mari’s 1974 Autoprogettazioni (diy projects) as a precursor. Mari produced plans for do-it-yourself furniture.

Eliminating bias in school testing by swapping teachers during grading.

An interesting proposition, among many:

In the Internet age, a student’s work is just as easily available to a professor on either coast. Why then would a professor be grading his or her own students? It is an invitation to dishonesty. A student who has learned nothing will not receive an F because the professor doesn’t want to admit that his teaching hasn’t been compelling and/or effective. Having the professor be simultaneously teacher, coach, and executioner sets up a bad dynamic in which students are afraid to admit weakness and ask for help.

It would cost nothing extra to have teachers at University of Kansas grade University of Massachusetts students and vice versa. The teacher at U. Kansas supplies the U. Mass teacher with the course syllabus and standards and the U. Mass teacher applies the standards without the bias of “these are the students who just sat through some lectures by the world’s greatest genius, i.e., me.”

via The Browser.

Paul Volcker speaking truth to power.

To have been in that room:

The former US Federal Reserve chairman told an audience that included some of the world’s most senior financiers that their industry’s “single most important” contribution in the last 25 years has been automatic telling machines, which he said had at least proved “useful”.

Echoing FSA chairman Lord Turner’s comments that banks are “socially useless”, Mr Volcker told delegates who had been discussing how to rebuild the financial system to “wake up”. He said credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligations had taken the economy “right to the brink of disaster” and added that the economy had grown at “greater rates of speed” during the 1960s without such products.

via Yves Smith who adds: “OTC derivatives, which has mushroomed from 1992 onward, has been at best a wealth transfer device from the real economy to the financial economy, and has probably exacted a net cost on society as a whole.”

High class marketing copy.

Marketing copy for millionaires:

The blue map, curving into the black distance is familiar but has none of the usual marked boundaries. The incredibly narrow ribbon of atmosphere looks worryingly fragile. What you are looking at is the source of everything it means to be human, and it is home.

Occupied Paris.

Vichy France, quite the time and place:

German officers, always in impeccable civilian clothes, were loyal clients of the brothel, as were agents of the Gestapo, whose torture chambers on the rue Lauriston were conveniently nearby. If this mélange was not strange enough, Mme Billy’s establishment was frequented by members of the French resistance too. Only once in a while did unpleasantness intrude, such as when the German police decided that Jews might be among the company, and all the French guests were required to pull down their trousers. According to the writer Roger Peyrefitte, all the men protested vehemently except for Cocteau, who rather took pleasure in the exercise.

“The decision not to deploy American forces to go after bin Laden or block his escape was made by…”

Bin Laden expected to die. His last will and testament, written on December 14, reflected his fatalism. “Allah commended to us that when death approaches any of us that we make a bequest to parents and next of kin and to Muslims as a whole,” he wrote, according to a copy of the will that surfaced later and is regarded as authentic. “Allah bears witness that the love of jihad and death in the cause of Allah has dominated my life and the verses of the sword permeated every cell in my heart, ‘and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together.’ How many times did I wake up to find myself reciting this holy verse!” He instructed his wives not to remarry and apologized to his children for devoting himself to jihad.

But the Al Qaeda leader would live to fight another day. Fewer than 100 American commandos were on the scene with their Afghan allies, and calls for reinforcements to launch an assault were rejected. Requests were also turned down for U.S. troops to block the mountain paths leading to sanctuary a few miles away in Pakistan. The vast array of American military power, from sniper teams to the most mobile divisions of the Marine Corps and the Army, was kept on the sidelines. Instead, the U.S. command chose to rely on airstrikes and untrained Afghan militias to attack bin Laden and on Pakistan’s loosely organized Frontier Corps to seal his escape routes. On or around December 16, two days after writing his will, bin Laden and an entourage of bodyguards walked unmolested out of Tora Bora and disappeared into Pakistan’s unregulated tribal area. Most analysts say he is still there today.

The decision not to deploy American forces to go after bin Laden or block his escape was made by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and his top commander, Gen. Tommy Franks, the architects of the unconventional Afghan battle plan known as Operation Enduring Freedom.

From TORA BORA REVISITED: HOW WE FAILED TO GET BIN LADEN AND WHY IT MATTERS TODAY: A Report To Members OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE (PDF)

Two slices of Dubai, modern on the outside…

An almost technical, brief, eye-opening account of how Sharia law affects financial deals in Dubai in the Financial Times.

From a slow-burning diatribe in the Independent: “The thing you have to understand about Dubai is – nothing is what it seems,” Karen says at last. “Nothing. This isn’t a city, it’s a con-job. They lure you in telling you it’s one thing – a modern kind of place – but beneath the surface it’s a medieval dictatorship.”

Does politics need to be entertaining? Yes.

Writing about Sarah Palin and more recently enjoying parodies of Glenn Beck I’ve been thinking on and off about political theater. Or rather, how difficult it is to separate politics and theater.

We make sense of the world via narrative. It’s not a crutch – it’s how we get around. The proper response to Beck and Palin is, as always, to ridicule them but, also, to peel off some of their devotees with competing narratives. Ideally, based on facts rather than fantasies.

The right wing peddles stories that make sense of frustration and anger. Why not start there?

Update: The New Yorker has a short profile of Palin in which Richard Hofstadter is quoted: “[T]he growth of the mass media of communication and their use in politics have brought politics closer to the people than ever before and have made politics a form of entertainment.” That was in 1954.

Omni. Meaning lots of links and not that magazine with the cool covers from yesteryear. Sadly.

The Browser is my favorite site of the moment. The below excerpts are taken mostly from it.

· “I argue that dreaming is not a parallel state but that it is consciousness itself, in the absence of input from the senses…” – Dr. Rodolfo Llinás as quoted in The New York Times. Amazon reader reviews of Llinás’ book suggest the premise of his books is pretty interesting: that consciousness evolves from motor skills; that is, how we learn to move in space. Thus, consciousness is a gift shared by many, many other animals.

· John Kay in the Financial Times argues, dryly, that Wall Street has overstepped its bounds. For example: “Privatisation and the breaking up of statutory monopolies has reduced rent-seeking by organised groups of public employees. But the scale of corporate rent-seeking activities by business and personal rent-seeking by senior individuals in business and finance has increased sharply.”

· Never mind the Great Firewall, here’s the Spinternet: “The Russians outsource it to new media start-ups who then create ideological social networking and blogs that promote a pro-Kremlin ideology. The Chinese have created a decentralized, 280,000-person-strong contingent of what is known as the 50-cent party, members of which get paid 50 Chinese cents for each comment they leave online.”

· Other people’s problems are always more interesting: a fascinating account of Europe’s struggle to assimilate immigrants who invoke (or invent) a Muslim identity in their new home – inhospitable as it may feel. While I was reminded of the late Sam Huntington’s mad tirade against the Catholic hordes (Mexicans), that conflict feels quaint by comparison.

Revolutions from 1789 to 1989, or, how the guillotine turned into a round table.

Timothy Garton Ash:

[The Velvet Revolution], might be contrasted with an ideal type of 1789-style revolution, as further developed in the Russian Revolution of 1917 and Mao’s Chinese revolution. The 1789 ideal type is violent, utopian, professedly class-based, and characterized by a progressive radicalization, culminating in terror. A revolution is not a dinner party, Mao Zedong famously observed,…

The 1989 ideal type, by contrast, is nonviolent, anti-utopian, based not on a single class but on broad social coalitions, and characterized by the application of mass social pressure—”people power”—to bring the current powerholders to negotiate. It culminates not in terror but in compromise. If the totem of 1789-type revolution is the guillotine, that of 1989 is the round table.

via The Browser.