Hope is only meaningful in the face of hardship.

David Rothkopf ties home ownership to America’s role as peacekeeper and protector of human rights abroad: “American optimism and self-confidence [are] manifest in U.S. wealth creation either expressed through home ownership, housing prices, employment figures and wages.”

He warns:

This country is in a dark place economically unlike any I have seen in my half century or so of life. While I worry about the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit, we have seen those before and handled them. The more serious deficit we face is one that cuts to the very core of America’s character: it is an optimism deficit.

If the market was irrationally exuberant before, it’s irrationally pessimistic now. The fundamentals of the economy have not changed – only the finance sector has proven itself unworthy of being taken at face value.

Life isn’t easy. Anyone who peddles the contrary story is either lying or doesn’t know any better and is not to be trusted. But that same hardship is what makes hope meaningful. Without hardship hope is just wish fulfillment.

If ever there was a time for optimism, it’s now, when the glass is half full. When its running over the question is moot.

work

Here’s to laying foundations.

Laying foundations is drudgery. You’re mostly in the dark. You can’t really see any progress from the outside. And, yet, when the foundations are finally laid, when they’re deep, wide and level, you can build a tall structure that will stand the test of time.

people

Mother, the movie, is a milestone.

The movie Mother is the best all-out movie I’ve seen in a while.

Directed by Bong Joon-Ho, written by Park Eun-kyo and Mr. Bong, with amazing shots by Hong Kyung-pyo and spellbinding acting by Kim Hye-ja. It’s a milestone not to be missed.

A mother’s love is the most creative and thus, possibly, the most destructive force. (cf. Kali)

To me, it has the range of movies like Chinatown, The Beat That My Heart Skipped, Days of Heaven, Birth and Happy Together.

movies & television/people/things

Sleep on it.

“Sleep on it.” To the extent that we use and believe in this phrase, we understand the fundamental role that the unconscious plays in human existence.

ideas/people

A few thoughts on planning for the future.

The act of making and keeping an appointment is an effort to change one’s thinking (“now, you must think about this”) but such changes can be harder to pull off if they come at the wrong moment.

A more effective appointment system might be one that unfolds over a series of appointments, gradually preparing the mind for a necessary change rather than expecting it to make a hard turn.

While self-knowledge can certainly help in making more thoughtful routines for one’s mental efforts, there are likely to be basic rules that could be applied to improve this flow – and not just for one’s self but also for groups.

Thus, not only might there be optimal times to schedule specific types of meetings, there may also be optimal sequences for meetings – patterns, rhythms.

While organizations are likely to gradually find the right time for their own group thinking, that evolution could be facilitated (or accelerated) using insights on how to best condition the mind for different kinds of work.

 

A more perfect plan

The best laid schemes of mice and men
Go often askew,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain,
For promised joy!
– from To a Mouse, by Robert Burns

At the core of every appointment is a gaping hole: the unknowable future. Believing that the future will resemble the present is dangerous folly.

Because we can neither see into the future, nor fully control the workings of any system, no matter how closed, all plans are inherently lacking. The implications and/or consequences of these gaps will vary depending on the reasoning behind the plan rather than its details.

An intricately detailed plan that is ill-thought-out is more to likely to fail catastrophically. A plan drawn up in broad strokes but based on a well-thought-out logic will probably fail in a less dramatic fashion. What then is the best logic for planning?

The best logic is simply that which seeks to improve itself. The most successful planning methods require feedback, anticipate change and invite evaluation. Skepticism, not just of present conditions but also of past assumptions, is the utmost conservative gesture.

The thoughtless execution of a thoughtful plan can be its own undoing.

ideas

One way our desire filters what we hear.

We hear what we want to hear. We see what we want to see. That’s not to say there is no truth. There’s plenty of truth. But we tune into the frequencies and focus on the areas of our interest; whether these interests are conscious or not.

For example, if you lack something, being asked about it may trigger a different reaction than if you don’t lack it.

One could test this theory as follows.

When asked “Have you seen it?” If the answer is negative, you may hear, internally, a voice that says “want to see it” at the same time that you are deciphering the original question. This doubling of voices may result in your mishearing: “Do you want to see it?”

For example, if you have not seen a photo, being asked if you have seen it may prompt you to want to see it. It will induce a desire. If you have seen it, the question will simply prompt a recollection of that photo; which, while warm, will not feel as bright or sound as loudly as an unsatisfied desire.

people

The Roman Catholic Church has a staffing problem.

Aren’t the majority of the problems facing the RC Church related to weak staffing? Not enough qualified people. Can’t attract more. Actively losing staff.

What would a management consulting firm recommend? Has the RCC already hired one? Wouldn’t those reports be the property of the Church’s patrons: the laity? Could the laity request such a study be done?

people/power

Who benefits from “holy war”? The extremists on both sides.

Josh Marshall points out that the anti-Islamic fear mongering being perpetrated by right-wing activists is hurting America’s counter-terrorism efforts. He concludes: “the furor of opposition to the Cordoba House project and the spasm of Islamophobia is the best recruiting tool that bin Laden and his imitators could possibly hope for.”

Marshall implies that the activists slandering Muslims are unwittingly aiding and abetting Islamists and terrorists. I’m not sure it’s entirely unintentional – or, at least, undesirable.

Those who benefit from “holy war”, whether actual or rhetorical, politically, in terms of fund-raising or marketing, have an active interest in escalation and provocation.

Bin Laden isn’t just a recruitment tool for Al Qaeda and like terrorist groups. He’s also a recruitment tool for those who would claim him as a political adversary – in distinction from those who view him, instead, as a marginal sociopath, failed leader and criminal on the run.

The stronger Bin Laden appears, politically, the more attractive certain right wing policies and candidates seem.

ideas/people

All roads lead through Washington D.C., which is currently fucked.

Historic Voter Volatility in This Year of Fear, WSJ:

Today’s dark public mood appears to be the culmination of a long stretch of national anxiety encompassing a historic terrorist attack and two lengthy wars, followed hard by the worst economic crisis of the last 75 years. The nation is in a period of volatility that started well before this year, and that may stretch well beyond it.

In the political realm, there’s no doubt that this environment will produce significant victories for Republicans in November’s congressional elections. But the long-term consequences are much less clear.

Washington, We Have a Problem, Vanity Fair:

The press may claim the vestigial title of Fourth Estate, but it is the lobbying industry that is now effectively the fourth branch of government…Organizations you’ve never heard of wield far more influence in the capillaries of the bureaucracy than any elected official.

The Empty Chamber, The New Yorker

While senators are in Washington, their days are scheduled in fifteen-minute intervals: staff meetings, interviews, visits from lobbyists and home-state groups, caucus lunches, committee hearings, briefing books, floor votes, fund-raisers. Each senator sits on three or four committees and even more subcommittees, most of which meet during the same morning hours, which helps explain why committee tables are often nearly empty, and why senators drifting into a hearing can barely sustain a coherent line of questioning…

Nothing dominates the life of a senator more than raising money. Tom Harkin, the Iowa Democrat, said, “Of any free time you have, I would say fifty per cent, maybe even more,” is spent on fund-raising.

Not unlike the epic challenges posed by previous existential threats, our generation will have to focus on the increasingly absurd government of the United States of America; an awesome tool that has been modified to serve the narrow interests of the few instead of the multiple interests of the many: a more perfect Union, Justice, domestic Tranquility, the common defence, the general Welfare, the Blessings of Liberty.

There’s no other way forward as we confront the inevitable upheavals brought about by climate change, the “creative destruction” wrought by the global economy, the threats posed by terrorism (physical or virtual, anarchic or state-sponsored); in short, all the risks inherent in our complex civilization.

business/power

If you’re going to scare monger, at least do it right.

Lee Smith has written a fun, smart and thorough takedown of Gingrich et al’s latest boogie monster: “sharia” law.

As you would expect, Gingrich doesn’t even know what he’s talking about. Which is especially a bummer if you consider all the real existential threats we Americans face. If you’re going to scare monger, at least do it right.

That this intellectually dishonest, self-serving hypocrite is considered an intellectual powerhouse in the Republican party should shed some light on just how craven and base are the impulses that prolong its popular influence in the U.S..

They really do appeal to the worst of us. Ronald Reagan must be turning over in his grave.

people/power

Which online habit makes you happier?

It would be interesting to test whether users of the popular online tools (Facebook, Twitter, MySpace, Orkut) have devised uses (habits, activities) that makes them feel happier. And/or to confirm their happiness is a shared feeling via group studies that monitor the participants of an online group for signs of improved communication (tolerance, productivity, pleasure.)

ideas/people

Do Americans listen as much as they talk? We might be able to answer that.

In “Go West,” Peter Hessler returns to America after years of living in China and finds that we Americans like to talk about ourselves and are good at it. But he also concludes that we don’t listen very well – or ask many questions.

This might be a verifiable claim. At least when it comes to how we talk on mobile or smart phones.

You wouldn’t need humans to interpret transcripts – you’d use computer programs already being tested. You could thus graph the ebb and flow of relationships and identify the speech patterns of certain cities, states, life stages, income brackets, religions, political parties, etc. You could compare the habits of nations and/or population subsets across national borders.

It may not produce earth-shattering insights but then neither is being told that drinking a little wine here and there can help you live a long life. At the very least, it will be more information about our speech patterns than we have now.

Scenario one: Little Brother

(Update: Of course, the telcos are already doing this.)

Without invading their customers’ privacy, our telcos could tell us whether we are, on average, listening as often as we’re talking. Or, for that matter, how often we ask questions of people with whom we’re engaged in frequent and lengthy conversations. These companies already monitor who we’re calling and for how long – though they don’t appear to publish this data, in aggregate. Why not ask them to monitor the gaps and register changes in our voice calls and require them to publish this information?

Scenario two: The more you talk with us, the more you know yourself.

Instead of asking the telcos to do it, you could motivate callers to do it for their own quality of life as well as for the sake of science. An app that tells you when you’re adopting an unfriendly tone (consciously or not) could also ask you if you would like to share your patterns either anonymously or as a “friend feed” for a site like Facebook or Twitter.

In relying on volunteers you’d only reach the subset of Americans interested in changing the way they talk to one another. According to Peter Hessler, that may not be too many people. According to Oprah Winfrey, it might be quite a few.

Would you be tainting the data by giving users real-time feedback? Perhaps not. People smoke despite warnings. People go on diets and then break them. The estimated size of the self-help industry suggests results vary.

In any case, one could factor for the distortion caused by immediate feedback by creating control groups. The app could be randomly set, by default, to provide some users with less granular data – say, daily or weekly reports.

Previously: Peter Hessler on the Chinese Barbizon. Hessler is an absolutely wonderful writer.

ideas/people/things

Marshall: “the Republican party has chosen to hoist its sail to religious bigotry”

Josh Marshall:

No doubt the president’s advisers would much have preferred not to address [the Islamic community center] at all, wish it had never come up. But it’s difficult to imagine any president doing otherwise. We learn again that saying you’re for “democratic values” and freedom actually means being for “democratic values” and freedom. Are we in the tradition of the opening and plural societies of Amsterdam and London and America? Or the closed and authoritarian ones of Madrid and Moscow? The infrastructure of the Republican party has chosen to hoist its sail to religious bigotry. There’s no other way to put it. The president has done the only thing he could possibly do which is to state clearly that we’re Americans and we don’t discriminate on the basis of religious belief.

President Obama is not the most aggressive champion of liberal values (19th century liberal, 20th century liberal) but he is a champion nonetheless.

people

Nothing is solid; gorgeous prose from The Ecomomist

Gorgeous writing from The Economist:

The Earth is a recycling scheme that has been running for a third of the age of the universe. Microbes and plants endlessly pull carbon, nitrogen and oxygen from the atmosphere and pump them back out in different forms. Water evaporates from the oceans, rains down on the land, pours back to the seas. As it does so it washes away whole mountain ranges—which then rise again from sea-floor sediments when oceans squeeze themselves shut. As oceans reopen new crust is pulled forth from volcanoes; old crust is destroyed as tectonic plates return to the depths from which those volcanoes ultimately draw their fire.

…Water lasts in the atmosphere for a fortnight or so; carbon dioxide stays in the oceans for thousands of years. Mountains rise and fall over tens of millions of years; oceans open and close at rates even slower than that.

And for some things, in some places, there is a sort of stillness. The argon in the atmosphere just sits there, inert. The crystalline cratons at the centres of continents get neither buried nor torn apart by plate tectonics, though they may sometimes be submerged in shallow seas and sediments as they drift from place to place. Not everything, everywhere is in flux. But it feels as though the harder scientists look at the world, the fewer islands of stability they find.

ideas/language/nature

Silvio, the renewable energy rich playboys of Portugal await your electric Ferraris.

The NYT:

Nearly 45 percent of the electricity in Portugal’s grid will come from renewable sources this year, up from 17 percent just five years ago.

Land-based wind power — this year deemed “potentially competitive” with fossil fuels by the International Energy Agency in Paris — has expanded sevenfold in that time. And Portugal expects in 2011 to become the first country to inaugurate a national network of charging stations for electric cars.

“I’ve seen all the smiles — you know: It’s a good dream. It can’t compete. It’s too expensive,” said Prime Minister José Sócrates, recalling the way Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister, mockingly offered to build him an electric Ferrari. Mr. Sócrates added, “The experience of Portugal shows that it is possible to make these changes in a very short time.”

business/nature/power

Will computers in 2050 finally look like the ones we imagined in the 1950s?

A user on MetaFilter has argued that a well designed item is that which lasts a long time – or, perhaps, an item which the owner values for a long time.

Here’s my response wherein I argue that if the item is fun to use, pretty to look at, and works well for many years after it was purchased, it will keep its value to its owner. (There are items that “work great,” are cheap to buy, but eventually are neither fun to use nor pretty to look at. These are discarded quite easily. Are they good design? Not really.)

I also wondered if requiring 50 year-warranties on items with a certain footprint might be an effective way to promote innovation in the private sector?

What would such a nudge mean for personal computers? They are currently problematic, to say the least, when it comes to waste. Mismanaged waste disrupts the environment, leading to global security issues.

Could we reach a point in the current trend of mass computing where the Internet cloud is so powerful you won’t really need a new terminal every five years but rather can buy a terminal that works great, looks pretty and is fun to use for 20 years? What would computers look like if they came in truly classic and collectible varieties? A ’68 Mustang, an ’83 XJ-6.

Such computers might look like the computers in science fiction movies prior to the 1980s: computers as home appliances, designs meant to last for decades.

Essentially, talking furniture.

While it’s possible to conceive of computers being omnipresent – contact lenses, ear buds – I think we’ll always want a physical anchor, even if it becomes purely symbolic.

business/design/ideas